Definition:
Lean on: Balance of Power + Foreign Policy diplomacy, Economic and Political dependency
Transpacific Partnership (TPP): US pivot to and multilateral engagement in Asia
Implications / why is this question important for Singapore:
- If the geo-political status quo falls apart and tensions between USA-China are high, then who should Singapore lean towards?
- How would our ASEAN neighbours’ stands impact our stand and behaviour?
Debate
“Singapore should lean on United States”
Argument for Global Bandwagoning:
- US is the strongest and China won’t surpass US military size and economy until 30-40 years time. It is unwise to balance against US as it will exclude Singapore from economic benefits; US pursuing TPP as part of a pivot to Asia and Singapore is part of it.
- Singapore’s strategic position in Asia makes it beneficial for US to bring Singapore into international dialogue, which will benefit its economic and soft power (education influence).
- According to the democratic peace theory, US plays no threat towards other democracies like Singapore.
Argument for Regional Balancing:
- There is a need for Singapore to be a foothold for US to be an external balancer against expansionistic tendencies of China, especially with the South China Sea dispute. Furthermore, Philippines, a former US ally, is turning towards China, which makes US presence in Asia even more necessary.
- China’s One Belt One Road against the TPP that Singapore is part of.
- China is likely to be “revisionist power” with “hegemonic ambitions.” (Khong, 1999)
Economic argument:
- Economic reliance of Singapore, as an export oriented economy.
- 4000 MNCs in US have focused on Singapore and Asia, and will feel safer with US presence in Singapore/region
- TPP: covers 40% of the global economy
- (but will Singapore lose access to TPP? Is it exclusive?)
- US economy is recovering slowly: modest decrease in unemployment and increase in consumption
- US offers economic safeguards & instability of the Chinese economy.
Political argument:
- Singapore’s inherent vulnerability (ethnic Chinese in a muslim neighbourhood; lack of natural resources; small state and military)
- Good bilateral ties and US friendly foreign policies towards SG & Asia
- Similar interest in combatting terrorism in Asia, and Jemaah Islamiah in Singapore.
- Singapore is already leaning towards US as she has strong military and security partnership.
Social argument:
- China has been insensitive towards multicultural Singapore
- Its likely for China to only want to champion for Chinese rights
- China has also been insensitive towards Muslims in China, by putting restrictions on Muslims
“Singapore should lean on China”
Regional Bandwagoning:
- Singapore-China relations at stake
- Against other Southeast Asian Malay-Muslim states
(Structural Realism &) Global Balancing:
- USA is still a dominant global power. All the other states should be wary of US’s growing interest in Asia.
Economic argument:
- Economic engagement with China allows China to integrate into the world economy, which benefits the global consumption and export oriented countries like Singapore.
- Maintaining SG’s economic growth and the involvement of china into the internal games.
Political argument:
- Better engagement into regional organisations like ASEAN, coupled with economic integration, promotes adherence to “contemporary norms of international behavior” (Khong, 1999, p112)
- Is China rejecting norms because of ignorance and political-cultural /ideological differences though?
- Singapore’s not as strategic as we think; Not significant enough to be a proxy for USA to balance against China, and we are better off balancing with China.
- Lesser of Two Evils: China and USA are unlikely to obey international law but since China is closer, they pose a greater threat if we don’t forge friend ties with her.
Social argument:
- Leaning on US will make us lose our unique cultural identity.
- It is also not beneficial to our relations with our neighbours.
- Need to strike a balance at best.
Politics:
- Inherent biases: View of a benign USA and its adherence to international law.
- (but what about the Iraq war, and other violations to UN)
- Roles of regimes in producing beliefs
Hedging
Kuik Cheng Chwee:
- States should adopt a ‘middle’ position (p159)
- Policies reflect opportunism of small states, and are undertaken so as exploit the power competition between larger power, and to create legitimacy for the ruling elites and enhance their authority at home (p159)
Khong, Y.F:
- Build up a strong military posture, as part of a three prong approach, which would make Singapore a strong partner and prevent it from being a “push-over” by any powers. (p113)
Works cited:
Kuik Cheng-Chwee. (2008) “The Essence of Hedging- Malaysia and Singapore’s Response to a Rising China,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 30(2)- 159-185.pdf
Khong, Y.F. (1999) “Singapore: A Time for Political and Economic Engagement,” in Alastair lain Johnston and Robert S. Ross (eds.), Engaging China: the Management of an Emerging Power (London: Routledge), 109-127
More info:
https://www.mti.gov.sg/MTIInsights/Pages/TPP.aspx
Related readings:
deskbounded 